Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal looked back at the year that was on today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, sharing his thoughts on everything from equities to the bond market to crypto and more.
He touched on Tesla’s entry into the S&P and said he thinks Tesla (TSLA) may fall after inclusion because almost all buying has happened. He noted that it is very common to see a stock fall for a significant period after inclusion, but did say that this is Tesla, so who knows what could happen.
Either way, Pal said that Elon Musk won in the end; he can raise unlimited capital by the equity market. But Pal also said this tells you the story of what’s going on right now: people will pay anything for these kinds of stocks and they won’t pay anything for old economy stocks, and companies that don’t need money are doing extraordinarily well.
Pal said this is part of the larger insolvency narrative where the Fed seems unable to get money where it is needed most. Any business that can’t get access to capital has been destroyed, while anybody that can get access to capital can get as much as they need.
As for central bank easing, Pal said we can expect more to come in the future. He said the crypto market is telling us this, and there is also a historical precedent to consider. Generally, inflation falls after every recession and continues to fall for 2-3 years, which is why central banks keep easing, he said. He thinks crypto will be the single most dominant trade next year, and he believes that Ethereum (ETH-USD) will outperform Bitcoin (BTC-USD).
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Pal wrapped up the Briefing with his prediction that emerging markets will break out in 2021 and detailed the opportunities he sees in India, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and especially Iran.
“I’m much more excited about emerging markets than commodities,” Pal said. “In a technology-driven world with an aging population, the commodity cycles will be less pronounced. Emerging market dominance is going to be the story of the next decade.”
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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