In the realm of analyzing markets, it’s often said that “Market peaks evolve gradually, while market bottoms are sudden occurrences.” This commonly used phrase suggests that the process leading to market highs tends to unfold slowly, whereas market lows tend to manifest swiftly.
When it comes to market peaks, one typically observes a sequence of declines and recoveries that don’t have a substantial impact before a significant downturn takes place. On the flip side, market bottoms are usually unmistakable, characterized by rapid events featuring significant rebounds from lows.
Let’s explore market highs and lows across various technical scenarios. This exploration aims to provide insights into what to observe in the market and enhance your trading results.
Let’s delve into market lows first.
Examining the chart below reveals a distinctive V-shaped bottom and subsequent recovery in the S&P 500 Index during March 2020. This recovery occurred following the injection of trillions of dollars into the economy by the Federal Reserve in response to the market crash spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Now, let’s scrutinize market peaks using the S&P 500, but over an extended period.
As previously noted, market highs typically take time to materialize. Illustrated in blue is the 2007 peak that unfolded gradually in the S&P 500 over several months. Similarly, in late 2021 and early 2022, another extended process led to a peak in the S&P 500 before substantial declines occurred.
This peaking process involved an exceedingly bullish market sentiment coupled with the realization that inflation was persistent. In simple terms, inflation was not a temporary phenomenon, leading to the Federal Reserve having to raise interest rates faster than initially anticipated.
So, what’s on the horizon for 2024?
I foresee a peak resembling the ones observed in recent years. However, it’s crucial to note that each market peak is unique. Once again, market peaks require time to develop. I’m not anticipating a crash that would result in a 50% decline in the S&P 500. Nevertheless, significant market swings are expected this year.
This implies the need for a strategic trading approach, executing both bullish and bearish trades rather than relying on a broad directional bet in the market.
