Would You Go To China on Business Now?

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So yes, I am planning on going to China on Saturday. My first time, I’m a bit embarrassed to say. It’s not for a lack of opportunities, but rather a conviction that when I did go, I’d make a study of it, staying for at least two weeks, if not more.

But I’ve realized lately that in the past three decades of my career-related travel, I’ve never gone anywhere for more than one week. I admit, I’ve boxed China out, because I assigned it such import, such gravitas, that I needed to justify the 15-hour flight (and its attendant biome and geospatial shock) with a commitment of time I was never able to make.

So this year, I said fuggit. I’ll go when I can go, and for however long I can go. Dip a toe, go longer later. That’s my new approach. China has been looming at the edges of my self-imposed myopia for too long; plus my kids all speak Mandarin and have traveled there frequently. WTF is wrong with me?

So six or so months ago I received, and subsequently accepted, an invitation from a partner of mine, Club de Madrid, to participate in a conference in Guangzhou. The topic could not be more newsworthy: “Advancing Reform and Opening Up: Promoting Win Win Cooperation.” I mean….Win Win? China and the US?! Right?

The plan was to come in a day before, so as to get my jet-lagged shit together, and to leave the day after, so as to be truly in true gonzo form by the time I hit my daughter’s Intermezzo concert back in New York on Weds.

But then…this. The arrest of the CFO of a major Chinese technology company is jaw dropping, both objectively, given what’s going on geopolitically, as well as from my limited and admittedly self-centric point of view. A senior executive of one of the most powerful and important companies in the Chinese data economy – who happens also to be the daughter of the company’s founder– detained in Canada at the behest of the United States. Yeah, I kind of don’t care what the arrest was for (Iranian sanctions, FWIW). This is …A. Big. Fucking. Deal.

Let’s put this another and arguably more cynical way. The Trump administration is playing high stakes poker with China so as to divert attention from its domestic dumpster fires (um, Mueller, for those not playing along at home), and it’s using  the Chinese technology industry as a convenient and utterly defensible foil.

Because let’s be honest. It’s beyond believable that a company like Huawei might be in the thrall of the Chinese government. If you think that’s not a defensible statement, well, please leave your comments below, because I’ve no heard anyone I respect who studies China say otherwise.

So the stage is set.

And, by the way, why did Canada do Trump’s dirty work? That’s certainly outside the scope of my ramblings, but well worth investigation. Suffice to say, a scion of global capitalism is now in jail for geopolitical crimes, a first in the modern history of the western hemisphere, as far as I can tell. That she’s Chinese, and in Canada? Icing, folks, icing.

So this move could have been played at any time, but it’s simply perfect that it’s been rolled out now, just as the China trade tariff war has come to a boil, just as the stock markets, so beloved as a symbol of our president’s success, have been tanked by the uncertainty of the global deal between Chinese totalitarian capitalism and…well what now do we properly call the US version (Facebook capitalism? Nah. Google? Um, no. Amazon? Let’s try again….And Apple? Well, that’s complicated…Let’s just say coal capitalism, shall we! Yes, that’s it, coal!)

All of this is worth many more ponderings, and much more thinking out loud. Regardless, one thing I’m certain of: There won’t be a single senior US technology executive going to China for the next week or two, if not longer. And I’m sure simply publishing this piece will lower my odds of boarding a flight this weekend, but I must ask, out loud: Given the facts of today, would you travel to China on Saturday?

Asking for a friend.

Cross posted from Searchblog