“We have met the enemy and he is us.” – Pogo
It has been a long time since investors have seen distractions and the mental challenges that we have experienced in just seven months in 2020. Making the situation even more complex, this is also an election year, so there is more to come. Not since the 1960s and ’70s has the United States experienced social upheaval like it is experiencing today. We have protests, violence, and a massively divided political landscape.
On top of that, we have a virus that is spreading across the country, creating fear and further dividing investors into two camps. The open the economy crowd and the contingent that says “We need to be safe”.
As time goes on, neither side is going to agree with the other and that defies logic and common sense. There is certainly a way to do both, and that is imperative because there are severe ramifications that each side has to consider. Investors watched the number of cases in the “Northeast” U.S. slow to what is now their best levels in months, while at the same time other parts of the country were not nearly affected.
A mini-revolt to get the economy moving started, and now with states moving to re-open, we see a spate of new virus hot spots emerge. I’m not sure why this is considered a “surprise”. Common sense dictated it was inevitable and going to happen. It was part of the “speedbump”/rocky re-open scenario that was mentioned here and elsewhere.
Be that as it may, it was another reason for some to start the re-closing process all over again. The stock market as evidenced by the price action wasn’t surprised at all by the recent “surge” in cases and has taken the “event” in stride. That in itself has baffled many. All who are now chanting and basing their strategy that the stock market is out of touch with reality. It is overvalued and it’s a very dangerous place to be right now.
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Don’t take that from me, it’s being confirmed by the amount of money sitting in money market funds and the lack of bullish sentiment displayed for weeks now.
Some statistics don’t make the headlines these days. After all, any day, every day, it’s all about virus cases and virus cases only.
First Trust Economics weighs in with some interesting info:
“Americans are showing a desire to press for more freedom. On May 31st 352,947 people went through TSA airport security checks. On June 22nd, as reports of a surge in new cases started to appear, TSA counted 607,540 passengers. If these reports of a surge are slowing activity, we can’t see it in the TSA data. On July 5th, 732,123 passengers entered airports.”
“Moreover, gasoline usage, which had been down about 50% from the year before at its worst back in April, is now down just 10%. And Apple’s mobility data, which reflects requests for directions, bottomed in April, down nearly 60% from the January 13, 2020 benchmark. Since April, the mobility data has rebounded 19%.”
“People are also moving around at least when it comes to looking at a home purchase. As of July 3rd Year-on-year, U.S. Mortgage Applications For Purchase volume rose 33.0 percent according to MBA. That is with the country being totally locked down for at least half of this year.”
“The census bureau reported amid the worst job market in decades and projections that the economy will contract by as much as 35% this quarter, entrepreneurs apparently missed the message of doom. New business formation has rebounded quickly in parts of the country, raising hopes for a stronger-than-expected recovery.”
“Revenue Per Available Room dropped from the mid $90 level before the crisis to a low around $15 when the country was locked down. As of July 4th that has rebounded to the $44 level, a 190% increase in about two-plus months.
CEO Richard Stockinger Fiesta Restaurant Group:
“We are very encouraged by the significant sequential improvement in comparable restaurant sales at both brands in the second quarter, which has continued into the third quarter. These improving trends have come despite the fact that we are operating in two of the most challenged states in terms of COVID and economic conditions, Florida and Texas.”
Investors find themselves in a situation that many have never seen before. For sure there are always situations where data comes into question, but what we have witnessed lately is far different. Market participants are left to determine what is genuine and what is exaggerated. The surge in cases or the surge in economic activity? The stock market is telling investors what to pay attention to.
Despite that message, many want to remain with the notion that new cases and some reversals in openings (speedbumps that were discussed and expected) will do the same kind of damage to economic activity that we saw in March and April. At the moment, the data isn’t confirming that at all.
While some will go kicking and screaming into the night, the probability of another nation-wide economic shutdown is very low. Another subtle message that so many have missed. Those in the “Glass Half Full” camp says economic data will continue to improve in the weeks and months ahead. Liquidity is all around us. The M2 money supply has exploded, up 25% in the past year, one of the fastest year-over-year rates ever seen.
The debate will now ensue as to whether the economic rebound has plateaued or will it continue to grow, albeit, at a slower rate. Whether the virus cases will continue to increase or will they slow down, then fade away. That is precisely what the stock market is trying to figure out, as it sits just below the old all-time high recorded just five months ago.
The S&P entered the trading week -6% off the all-time high and down -1.4% for the year. Once again the “weekend news” was all about COVID. Opinions on what must be done next during this “event” ruled the airwaves. Mr. Market continued to display some indifference to it all as it was once again “risk-on” sentiment to open the first trading session of the week.
However, that mood didn’t last as all of the major indices posted a HUGE reversal during the day. The media pundits will tell you it was California’s decision to start re-closing its economy. An announcement that came late in the trading day. I’m here to tell you what investors witnessed was all “technical” in nature. The S&P hit what is the break-even level for the year at 3,235 and reversed sharply. For anyone who is staying in touch with what the market is all about this wasn’t surprising at all. The S&P hit that strong area of resistance, then closed down 0.9% on the day.
Members of my service were notified last week that there would be HUGE resistance at that level. This was identified as a “psychological” barrier that will force some investors to make decisions. After all, seeing the index at par for the year given all of the consternation over this virus-ridden world, breaking even is a HUGE victory. For those with that mindset, it was time to “get out of town” while the getting was so good. Programmed trading set to initiate “sell” programs at this key area, then kicked in.
Turnaround Tuesday came knocking as all of the major indices rose on strong breadth. Many pundits were once again at a loss for words since they were sure the rally had ended the day before. It was the “technicals” that once again dictated the move as the S&P bounced hard off a very short-term support level.
“Value” was once again an area that attracted buyers. Every Dow 30 component was higher and that helped the index lead the way with a 2.2% gain on the day. The Industrial sector (XLI) was also up 2.2%. Healthcare +2%, while Homebuilders (XHB) and Energy (XLE) both up 3+%.
The S&P gained 1.4%, and the Nasdaq posted the smallest rebound at 0.90%. It was clear money is moving around the different sectors. I call that a positive.
This “Mini-Trend” continued on Wednesday. Financials (XLF) gained +2%, Healthcare (XLV) posted a new all-time high gaining +1.3%, Homebuilders were up +2.7%, Industrials (XLI) up +2.5%. While that was going on, Semiconductors (SMH) fell -0.4%, the S&P gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) lagged, only up +0.5%. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was barely positive. The subtle message on Monday was now an ear-piercing siren.
The remainder of the trading week saw much of the same. There were rallies at support, then a fade at resistance. The S&P closed the week sitting right at the breakeven level for the year and -4.75% off the all-time high. Technology lagged with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 posting losses for the week, with the S&P 500, Dow 30, Dow Transports, and Russell 2000 all posting gains.
How long the “Value” pay continues is anyone guess, but I only made subtle changes to positioning based on what I saw this past week. All of those changes were dividend-paying “income” ideas.
This has been a synchronized global rally off the COVID lows. While there has been a great focus on the run-up of the largest American equities, the biggest European stocks have also been on the rise in recent weeks. The STOXX 50 (FEZ) is made up of some of the largest companies by market capitalization in the broader Euro STOXX index.
In May and the first week of June, FEZ ripped higher before stalling out around 8.5% away from the January 1st 52-week high at $37.24. After sitting below that June high for the rest of June and the first half of July, FEZ is finally looking to make a new high this week.
After pausing Friday, the CSI 300 (ASHR) rallied at the beginning of the week to post new highs on a closing basis. The internals looked great as more than four stocks gained for every declining listing.
Chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com
Since June 15, the large-cap onshore index has now gained 23%. As the chart of the ASHR indicates, China’s huge run may also be starting to slow down. Once again, no major surprise. The index is right at the January 2018 high, a level that represents stiff resistance.
ASHR remains my largest International position. I did harvest some profits at the recent high.
Just about a month ago the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the United States reached a new record high as economic data broadly rebounded. In the time since then, the U.S. surprise index has left that record in the dust. Since the first new record high on June 15th, the U.S. index has not just continued to rise but has more than doubled with 19 of the past 22 days marking a fresh record high.
Likely helped by the U.S. strength at least in part, the index for the entire globe has also entirely recovered. The global index is at its highest level since March of 2017.
Meanwhile, that strength has not been echoed in the indices for the Eurozone and Emerging Markets. The Eurozone index fell sharply in the first half of the year. Although it has staged a rapid recovery since mid-June, it is still negative, meaning reports are generally missing forecasts. Although it never fell as sharply as other areas of the globe, the index for emerging markets likewise remains in negative territory and the bottom 13% of all readings.
June U.S. CPI report beat estimates with a 0.6% headline rise and a 0.2% core price gain. The June CPI gains cap three straight months of declines for both series, as the initial impact of shutdowns was a demand shock, followed by growing supply constraints alongside the bounce in oil prices.
Consumer sentiment dropped 4.9 points to 73.2 in the preliminary July report, a big downside miss, after increasing 5.8 points to 78.1 in June. The slippage is a disappointment given improvements in many other confidence stats from April lows. The index is back near the 71.8 level in April and is far off the two-year peak of 101.0 as recently as February.
The 17.2-point July Empire State surged to a 20-month high of 17.2 from -0.2 in June, -48.5 in May, and an all-time low of -78.2 in April left the measure back in positive territory. For the first time since the pandemic. The manufacturing and new orders index moved back into expansion territory. The ISM-adjusted Empire State rose more modestly to a five-month high of 52.4 from 49.6 in June, 39.7 in May, and an all-time low of 30.8 in April, leaving a reading above the 50-mark for the first time since the 56.5 reading in February.
U.S. industrial production rose 5.4% in June, lifting capacity utilization to 68.6%, both above forecast. There was no revision to the 1.4% bounce in May production, but April was bumped down to -12.7%. Capacity utilization for May was nudged to 65.1%.
Philly Fed manufacturing index dipped -3.4 points to 24.1 in July after the record 70.6 point June surge to 27.5. The index was at a three-year high of 36.7 in February. The employment index bounced to 20.1 from -4.3 and is up from the -46.7 in April.
June retail sales climbed 7.5% and were up 7.3% excluding autos. Those follow the big and historic May rebound of 18.2% for the headline and 12.1% for the core after respective record plunges of -14.7% and -15.2% in April. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials increased another 7.3% from 12.3%. Auto sales were up 8.2% from the prior 48.7% bounce.
U.S. initial jobless claims declined -10k to 1,300k in the week ended July 11 following the -98k drop in the July 4 week to 1,310k. It’s a 15th straight weekly decline since the record surge to a historic peak of 6,867k in late March. The four-week moving average has continued to slide and was at 1,375k on the week versus 1,435k. Continuing claims were -422k lower at 17,338k in the week ended July 4 after the prior week’s -1,000k drop to 17,760k. The insured unemployment rate was 11.9% from 12.2%.
NAHB housing market index climbed another 14 points to 72 in July after surging a record 21 points to 58 in June. The index has recovered from the -42 point plunge in April to 30. The present single-family index jumped to 79 from 63 and is also back at its March level, it was as low as 36 in April. The future index sale index rose to 75 from 68, also the same as March. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 58 from 43 and is back to the January level. The NAHB noted a flight from the inner cities to the suburbs and lower density neighborhoods.
That bodes well for select homebuilders in lower-taxed, less-violent, growth areas of the U.S.
Housing starts surged 17.3% in June to a 1.18 M pace, after a 37k upward May boost to 1.01 M, leaving a stronger-than-expected headline path. Analysts have a big May-June rebound for starts after a three-month pullback from a 13-year high of 1.61 M in January to a 0.93 M April low. Building permits rose by a less impressive 2.1% to 1.24 M in June, though permits rose more sharply than starts in May, and permits have shown a similar May-June rise after a three-month pullback through April from a 13-year high of 1.53 M in January.
ECB Recap: Thursday’s policy statement showed no change to pandemic bond-buying (steady at €1.35 T) and no change to rates; those will stay “at present or lower levels until the inflation goal is near.”
The governing council committed to QE reinvestment for “an extended time” after the first rate hike, with pandemic purchases running “at least through the end of June 2021” and reinvestment through “at least the end of 2022.” QE purchases will run “until shortly before” interest rate hikes.
Eurozone Manufacturing: Industrial production also bounced less than expected in May, helping to keep total industrial output far below the pre-COVID level in Europe.
China Trade: Chinese imports picked up more than expected in June, while exports to the U.S. continued to rebound following the end of the Trump Administration’s trade dispute with that country. In March, exports to the US were 13.6% of the Chinese total, a record low; they’ve since rebounded to 18.7% in June as the overall activity has picked up.
China’s GDP rebounded to positive territory growing by 3.2% in Q2. These results indicate GDP was back above its Q4 levels in Q2, an impressive bounce-back that trounces what developed economies have managed.
Singapore GDP fell at a 41.2% annualized pace, substantially worse than the 35.9% decline expected. That was the first reading on GDP from around the world economy in Q2 and the results were pretty terrible.
Singapore’s global trade data reported this week showed a very strong uptick in global trade volumes started in June. Perhaps a rebound is on the way.
We have seen the early results from the banking industry, and given the economic circumstances, they were stellar reports. The large money center banks just went through the greatest “stress” test in real-time and came out looking just fine despite very large and material increases to loan loss reserves.
Costs of loan provisions which may or may not be needed (that’s probably dependent on the virus) have so far been broadly offset by surges in trading revenues. The latter was the result of a key piece of legislation that went unnoticed by many analysts.
IF the Financial sector is a preview of what is to come for the remainder of this earnings season, analysts’ estimates are way too low.
While many complain there is little to no visibility on the earnings front, Savvy Investors know there are plenty of companies not only offering guidance but also raising forward guidance. In the April-May earning season, there were 66 such companies. While it is still early in this season, June and July added 12 more entities raising their forward guidance. Information that is invaluable when it comes to positioning a portfolio in this uncertain backdrop.
The Political Scene
Current polls and election prediction services indicate high probabilities of a trifecta for the Democrats, holding the House, winning the Senate, and winning the Presidency. Beginning in early June, sites such as Predict It has shown a continuous increase in odds for this outcome. While conventional wisdom holds that this outcome may mean a less favorable tax and regulatory environment, there is far too much time and uncertainty in the election process to assess the probability of a worsening tax and regulatory regime.
Election year outcomes require correctly guessing not one but two outcomes. First, correctly calling the election, and second, correctly predicting legislation and policy. For now, we are looking at a range from the continuation of the status quo to a potential $9-10 hit to earnings from a partial reversal of corporate tax rates, as outlined by candidate Joe Biden. Thus, an assumption of a $0-10 hit to earnings from the unpredictable political environment seems reasonable.
This year may also include a third issue for investors to ponder. Biden’s running mate and other choices he makes for his administration. Candidate Biden has tossed around the idea of Elizabeth Warren paying a large role in his administration in an effort to draw the Bernie Sanders supporters into his camp. There is little reason to further pontificate on Ms. Warren but to say she is not considered “business-friendly”. So investors will have a lot to consider.
I have no special insight into what may occur, and at the moment, do not yet assume any hit to earnings. There remains time to watch how the situation unfolds with each candidate and gather information on potential outcomes. Trying to outwit the market by making sweeping changes to a portfolio now can lead to plenty of misery IF the situation doesn’t turn out as projected.
The election is my largest concern for the second half of 2020.
Beige Book says activity up in almost all districts, but “well below” pre-COVID levels. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago based on information collected on or before July 6, stated:
“Economic activity increased in almost all Districts, but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer spending picked up as many nonessential businesses were allowed to reopen. Retail sales rose in all Districts, led by a rebound in vehicle sales and sustained growth in the food and beverage and home improvement sectors. Leisure and hospitality spending improved, but was far below year-ago levels. Most Districts reported that manufacturing activity moved up, but from a very low level.”
“Demand for professional and business services increased in most Districts, but was still weak. Transportation activity rose overall on higher truck and air cargo volumes. Construction remained subdued, but picked up in some Districts. Home sales increased moderately, but commercial real estate activity stayed at a low level. Financial conditions in the agriculture sector continued to be poor, while energy sector activity fell further because of limited demand and oversupply. Loan demand was flat outside of some Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) activity and increased residential mortgages. The PPP and loan deferrals by private lenders reportedly provided many firms with sufficient liquidity for the near term. Outlooks remained highly uncertain, as contacts grappled with how long the COVID-19 pandemic would continue and the magnitude of its economic implications.”
A trading range under 1% for the 10-year Treasury note has been in place for quite some time. After making a run to the top of that range in June, the 10-year drifted back down as COVID fears gripped the market. The 10-year closed trading at 0.64%, falling 0.01% for the week.
The 3-month/10-year Treasury curve inverted on May 23rd, 2019, and remained inverted until mid-October. The renewed flight to safety inverted the 3-month/10-year yield curve once again on February 18th, and that inversion ended on March 3rd. The 2/10 Treasury curve is not inverted today.
Source: U.S. Dept. Of The Treasury
The 2-10 spread was 30 basis points at the start of 2020; it stands at 50 basis points today.
No earth-shattering changes to sentiment this past week. AAII Bullish sentiment rose from 3.6% to 30.8%. That is a second straight weekly increase for bullish sentiment and the first time that it has risen above 30% since June 11th. That is still below the historical average of ~38%, but for the first time in four weeks.
Bearish sentiment rose from 42.6% to 45.3%, as it remains elevated above its historical average of 30.5%.
EIA data released this week showed inventories fell by 7.3 million barrels which is the largest draw since the final week of December. Production remains flat at 11 million barrels/day for a fourth consecutive week, which leaves the large drop in imports as the main driver of this week’s draw.
Imports fell to 5.5 mm bbls/day from 7.3 mm bbls/day last week. That was the largest week-over-week drop in imports since 9/2/16.
Gasoline inventories also saw a sizeable draw even as demand pulled back with refinery throughput lower for the first time in eight weeks.
The price of crude oil closed at $40.61 on Friday, which represented a gain of $0.05 for the week.
The Technical Picture
While the S&P struggled at overhead resistance levels, there was also plenty of downside probing this week. After the upside thrust on Wednesday, traders took three runs at the 3,200 support level, and all three times, buyers stepped in. There is plenty of room for the S&P to continue consolidating before any “real” test of meaningful support.
Chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com
We can expect more of the push/pull action right around this pivotal range. The bottom line: with all of the short- to intermediate-term moving average trend lines moving higher in a synchronized fashion, the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend. I’ll leave others to “guess” or speculate that the S&P is at an interim top.
No need to guess what may occur; instead it will be important to concentrate on the short-term pivots that are meaningful. However, the Long Term view, the view from 30,000 feet, is the only way to make successful decisions. These details are available in my daily updates to subscribers.
Short-term views are presented to give market participants a feel for the current situation. It should be noted that strategic investment decisions should NOT be based on any short-term view. These views contain a lot of noise and will lead an investor into whipsaw action that tends to detract from the overall performance.
Coronavirus: Here is an update on the dire situation in Florida.
It also appears the various labs are having trouble determining what is a “positive” and what is a “negative” result. Who died from Covid and who didn’t. When in doubt it HAS to be a “positive”, and for sure it IS a Covid related death. Or is it?
As it is often said when criticizing data reporting here in this forum, when “one number” is questionable, ALL of the numbers are then questionable.”
Perhaps that mentality then applies to the different states that are defined as the new COVID “hotspots” as well.
The skeptics have been complaining that the tech sector is in a bubble and just a handful of stocks are carrying the load. This past week the trading action offered a change of that trend. Values and small caps got some needed attention and the technology “hotties” cooled off.
All one has to do is look at the daily gains in the Financial and Industrial sectors and then compare that to Amazon’s (AMZN) 6% loss for the week. A hot name like ZOOM Technologies (OTC:ZTNO) fell 9% this week, and there were plenty of others just like that. Some will say price action like we saw this past week is positive. Others believe differently.
Buckle up, this is the next thing we will hear from the naysayers. The “leadership” of the stock market is falling apart. That crowd was wrong when it missed the surge in the technology sector as new macro trends emerged, and it will more than likely be wrong on its notion that “leadership” is gone.
If we play the “What if” game that they like to play, consider this:
“What IF new leadership emerges?”
So in their case, two wrongs won’t make a right; instead it means a continuation of a wrong-footed approach to investing.
I view ANY money rotation in a secular BULL market as a positive.
I’m not buying stocks or staying involved in the equity market because of a “potential” vaccine for COVID-19. I’m staying involved in the market because there remains plenty of opportunities. Yes, an abundance of opportunity, but ONLY if one remains open-minded and selective.
In the last two-plus months, action in the stock market has been quite simple to figure out. A bifurcated market that is rewarding the stocks that fit nicely into the new macro trends which have developed during the virus event. I mentioned it a while ago, the work from home trend isn’t going away anytime soon and the investors who follow that trend will continue to do well.
That creates winners, companies that are growing earnings, and at times raising guidance in a world where the majority of investors are complaining there is no visibility, and therefore they can’t value the “stock market”. Therein lies the first issue. This remains a “Market of Stocks” that CAN be properly assessed and valued.
If an investor looks at the fundamental backdrop in the economy and in certain areas of the stock market, they won’t like what they see. If an investor looks at the momentum stock that is selling at 20 times sales, they won’t like what they see. When an investor is checking, then obsessing over the daily virus statistics daily, they won’t like what they see. If an investor is watching the governors strut around giving THEIR rules and guidelines as they re-close the economics they govern, they won’t like what they see. If that same investor is reading the messages from the many pundits that continue to ply their Armageddon scenario, or their stories fraught with “issues,” they won’t like what they see.
What I just described is the army of people that own part of that five trillion dollars in Money Market funds earning less than 0.5% because they are skeptical and afraid of what they see. I’ve taken the other side of the argument for a while now because there is information available that tells a completely different story.
We have seen a bifurcated market with the old economy stocks that will need the economy to effectively “re-open” versus the new economy companies that will survive and thrive in the COVID world. That translates into two groups of investors as well. Some that are posting all of the arguments why the equity market should not be at these levels versus others who rely on the use of all of the data available to form a strategy. The market is always the final arbiter and will decide who is right and who is wrong.
It is crystal clear who has been right.
If you have been sitting around scratching your head and doing a lot of complaining about the price action in the market, wondering why you have been left behind, or why you can’t stay involved in stocks now, you may want to ponder these thoughts and get to the root of your problem.
First, please take a good hard look in the mirror.
Then take a look at the opening quote again:
“We have met the enemy and he is us.”
This unprecedented year rolls on. More speedbumps, more uncertainty for sure. More up and more downs, more push, more pull as investors wrestle with the issues. No one has all of the answers. One strategy I have relied on over the years that has worked very well. I don’t guess or speculate when the stock market could be ready to change direction, especially when we see indices at or near highs. After all, anyone that lightened up at all of the other “tops” is looking up at those that didn’t.
The investment world is overrun with market participants that believe they can sell at the top, then pull the trigger and buy back in at the precise moment as the market bottoms. That same world is also filled with people that like to tell fairy tales.
Please allow me to take a moment and remind all of the readers of an important issue. I provide investment advice to clients and members of my marketplace service. Each week I strive to provide an investment backdrop that helps investors make their own decisions. In these types of forums, readers bring a host of situations and variables to the table when visiting these articles. Therefore it is impossible to pinpoint what may be right for each situation.
In different circumstances, I can determine each client’s situation/requirements and discuss issues with them when needed. That is impossible with readers of these articles. Therefore I will attempt to help form an opinion without crossing the line into specific advice. Please keep that in mind when forming your investment strategy.
to all of the readers that contribute to this forum to make these articles a better experience for everyone.
Best of Luck to Everyone!
It is always nice to hear positive feedback from members
You, Sir, are ONE HELL OF A STOCK PICKER.
I like his openness and transparency. He works hard to publish worthwhile information consistently.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long EVERY STOCK/ETF IN THE SAVVY PLAYBOOK. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: My portfolios are ALL positioned to take advantage of the bull market with NO hedges in place.
This article contains my views of the equity market, it reflects the strategy and positioning that is comfortable for me.
IT IS NOT A BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY. Of course, it is not suited for everyone, as each individual situation is unique.
Hopefully, it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel calmer, putting them in control.
The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time.
As always I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community. Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die.
Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time.
The goal of this article is to help you with your thought process based on the lessons I have learned over the last 35+ years. Although it would be nice, we can’t expect to capture each and every short-term move.